Nov 8, 2008
Look around the world, and extra money is piling up in all sorts of places. Japanese corporations are recording record profits, but not doing much spending. Chinese companies are on an investment tear, but the country is getting so much money from exports that it has billions to spare.

Access to global savings has enabled the U.S. private and public sectors to fund a big increase in housing construction, health-care spending, and military outlays—all without boosting inflation or pushing up interest rates.

But the global economy is having a tough time absorbing the unanticipated flood of funds. Instead of going into productive investments, cheap money may be overheating spending and sending asset prices soaring too high, setting the stage for a future bust.

The savings surge also means that governments are not being penalized for running budget deficits. Cheap capital will give politicians the opportunity to waste the money on items that don’t boost long-term growth.

If low rates eventually pave the way for productive investment by governments and businesses, that would benefit investors. But until this happens, they must choose between accepting lower returns or taking on added risk.

BusinessWeek sounds an alarm in 2005

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Nov 8, 2008
Buffett is unique in his eagerness to explain how and why he does what he does. Underlying the desire to explain what he’s up to is the wish to be proved right—Buffett regards himself as living proof that the efficient market theory of market pricing is wrong.

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Nov 5, 2008
Don’t tell me what you’re doing, tell me what you’ve stopped doing. It requires courage, but it can be a tremendous relief to abandon a project. The practical result is the same—the project doesn’t get done—but deliberate abandonment eliminates guilt and frees up emotional energy.

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Nov 2, 2008
Values are acquired. That which is imposed is dogma.
Sugata Mitra on socially self-organizing primary education

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Oct 28, 2008
Putting out a product in hopes of getting a lot of eyeballs is a young man’s business model, a business model without considering connections. Deciding to make connections for your business isn’t conscious. When something happens, the first thing that pops in your head is “Boy, Fred needs to hear about this”. How many Freds you know dictates how often that idea pops in your head. A 30 year old generally has more business connections than a 20 year old. People simply follow business plans as they occur to them.
Paul Tyma obvious with hindsight

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Oct 25, 2008
In exchange for Bailout Funding, the TARP should require banks that issue credit cards, whether in their names or others, to limit interest rates and fees.

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Oct 24, 2008
Whatever regulatory changes are made, they will pale in comparison to the change already evident in today’s markets. Those markets will for the indefinite future be far more restrained than any currently contemplated regulatory regime.
Alan Greenspan underestimates the speed with which we can forget history

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Oct 24, 2008
In Aramaic, the language of Jesus, the word for “debt” and the word for “sin” are the same.

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Oct 24, 2008
We live in a fragile world over-optimized for our traditional economic structure. It’s not as resilient as it used to be. We don’t have slack. A small shortage of oil can lead to an explosion in price from $25 to $150 a barrel.

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Oct 23, 2008
You can’t control the number of items on your todo list, but you can control the language and level of detail you use. The language controls the number of items.
Daniel Markham on keeping todo lists unintimidating

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